US intelligence has reportedly warned several European governments that Russia may be preparing a drone operation launched from the Mediterranean against southern Europe — a dramatic claim that has set off a political firestorm, even as Paris and Rome publicly dispute the warning.
US intelligence has reportedly warned several European governments that Russia may be preparing a drone operation launched from the Mediterranean against southern Europe — a dramatic claim that has set off a political firestorm, even as Paris and Rome publicly dispute the warning.
The alleged plot: Gerbera drones hidden in shipping containers
According to reporting by the Spanish daily El Mundo, the CIA shared an assessment with several European governments pointing to a possible Russian operation using Gerbera-type drones launched from commercial vessels in the Mediterranean. The suspected scenario is as simple as it is unsettling: drones concealed inside ordinary shipping containers aboard merchant ships, launched from international waters, then flying an hour or two toward targets in Spain, France or Italy.
The weapon at the center of the report is the Russian Gerbera, a cheap long-range drone Moscow fires at Ukrainian cities in large numbers every week. It can fly roughly 600 kilometres carrying a 5-kilogram explosive payload — enough to damage airports, military facilities or critical infrastructure near the coast. A ship positioned several hundred kilometres offshore would never need to enter a NATO country's territorial waters, making preparations far harder to detect. Launching from the sea would also bring normally distant European targets within range without Russia establishing a military base abroad.
Where the intelligence came from
The story, broken by journalist Xavier Colás, rests on a single named sourcing chain: an anonymous source close to Lithuania's defence ministry, who said European governments had received the information, with the assessment traced to CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow last August. El Mundo claims Ratcliffe personally cautioned Russian officials against targeting NATO nations during that trip.
That thin chain is exactly why the report has drawn immediate skepticism. The CIA has not publicly confirmed the assessment, and the intelligence has not been independently verified. Moscow has denied having any such intentions.
Allies push back — but NATO stays watchful
The loudest rejections came from the countries named as potential targets. Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said there was no evidence confirming Russia was preparing an operation of the kind described, calling the claims "completely unsubstantiated" and appealing, in difficult times, not to pour "fuel on the fire." French President Emmanuel Macron said flatly in a television interview that "the CIA has not informed French intelligence agencies of such an attack."
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte struck a middle line: the Russian threat "exists and is a long-term one," he said, urging Europeans to "remain calm" and "not fall into Putin's trap, as he wants to sow panic." The warning comes as European officials grow increasingly concerned that Russia is expanding its campaign of hybrid warfare — sabotage, cyberattacks and other pressure tactics that fall short of open war.
Why Ukraine's allies should still take it seriously
Russia's denials deserve no benefit of the doubt. Moscow denied planning to invade Ukraine in 2022, denied responsibility for atrocities in Bucha, and continues to deny its sabotage operations across Europe even as Western security services document them. A denial from the Kremlin has never been evidence of anything.
Nor is the Gerbera a hypothetical weapon. These plywood-and-electronics drones are the workhorses of Russia's nightly terror campaign against Ukrainian cities, shot down by the dozen. And launching drones from civilian shipping is not a novel trick either — Ukraine itself pioneered striking deep into Russia using ordinary civilian transport.
Whether or not this specific warning proves accurate, the underlying assessment is sound: Russia is probing NATO's seams for weakness, testing how the alliance reacts to ambiguous threats that are designed to frighten without triggering war. Europe's early-warning posture should be built on what Russia is capable of doing, not on what Moscow claims it won't do.
The Mediterranean drone warning may prove to be a false alarm, an exaggerated tip from a single source, or a genuine Russian plan still being weighed in Moscow. What is certain is that the era in which NATO's southern flank could assume the war was someone else's problem is over. Ukraine has been living under exactly this kind of drone threat for years — Europe would do well to listen.
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