Russian forces have mostly withdrawn from their salient southeast of Lyman and are now defending a small bridgehead west of the Zherebets River, northeast of Yampil, according to battlefield reporting. The pullback collapses Moscow's southern flank around the city — and, combined with Ukraine's destruction of the large Russian salient north of Lyman, it all but buries the Kremlin's attempt to build a pincer around one of the most contested cities in Donetsk Oblast.
Autumn turns the forest against the occupiers
The timing is no accident. Autumn is stripping the tree cover Russian troops have relied on for concealment, and Ukrainian drone crews are exploiting it ruthlessly. Thermal-equipped reconnaissance drones now scan the thinning tree lines for heat signatures, revealing soldiers hiding beneath branches, inside dugouts, beside wrecked vehicles, or under ruined structures — targets ordinary cameras would miss.
Fibre-optic FPV drones add another edge. Unlike radio-controlled drones vulnerable to electronic warfare, they stay connected through a physical fibre, letting Ukrainian operators thread paths between tree trunks and strike positions hidden in the remaining vegetation. Once the drones pin down a Russian group's exact location, assault troops move forward while strike drones suppress or destroy individual hideouts.
It is a methodical clearing operation, and it is working: reporting indicates Russian units have given up the salient southeast of Lyman rather than be hunted tree line by tree line.
The southern flank collapses
The broader significance is hard to overstate. Ukraine has already eliminated the large Russian salient north of Lyman — the northern arm of Moscow's would-be pincer around the city — and the clearing of the forest to the southeast has now collapsed the southern flank as well. What remains of Russia's presence is a small bridgehead across the Zherebets, northeast of Yampil: a toehold, not a threat.
Even Kremlin-connected analysts are struggling to spin this. The Rybar Telegram channel acknowledged Ukrainian gains this week, noting that after Russian units gradually advanced around Lyman in the first half of summer, Ukraine counterattacked in August and by the first week of September had regained positions and begun attempts to recapture settlements such as Shandryholove and Zarichne. Rybar also noted Ukraine has deployed reserves for an offensive toward the Zherebets aimed at aligning the front along the water barrier.
What the retreat costs Moscow
The Institute for the Study of War's September 24 assessment recorded Russian forces concentrating offensive operations northeast of Lyman on September 23 and 24 — and failing to advance as Ukrainian forces counterattacked. Analysts tracking the operation estimate Ukraine has retaken more than 200 square kilometres over roughly four months of counterattacking, cutting down a salient Moscow spent the better part of a year building.
For the Kremlin, the arithmetic around Lyman is getting bleak. The city was supposed to be the hinge of a northern Donbas offensive; instead, Russian commanders are left defending a shrinking river crossing while Ukrainian forces consolidate on both flanks. With winter approaching and the forests offering less concealment every week, holding even the bridgehead will demand troops Moscow can ill afford to spare.
The pincer that was meant to close around Lyman has broken in Russia's hands — and the season that made the forest a hiding place is the same season that took it away.
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