For nearly four months, some of Ukraine's most battle-hardened units have been fighting one of the war's most consequential battles in near-total silence. According to open-source researchers, military experts and even pro-Russian war bloggers, Ukraine's counteroffensive north of Lyman is succeeding: much of Russia's 20th Combined Arms Army has been pushed back toward the Zherebets River, dismantling a salient Moscow spent roughly a year building — and blunting its drive on Sloviansk.
The salient Moscow spent a year building
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on September 15 that Ukrainian commanders quietly ordered units drawn mainly from the 3rd Army Corps into positions about 50 kilometres north of Sloviansk in late May. They confronted a bulge where Russia's 20th Combined Arms Army had been grinding westward from a bridgehead on the west bank of the Zherebets River. Russia's objective was stark: cut the supply lines feeding Ukrainian forces in Sloviansk, one of two main Ukrainian-held cities in Donetsk.
Over the summer, Ukrainian forces battled northward out of Lyman while pushing south toward Ridkodub, Katerynivka and Nove. 3rd Army Corps commander Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky confirmed the operation on September 15: "We confirm reports of a Ukrainian Army offensive in the north of Donetsk Oblast. Maintaining information silence, the units eliminated pockets of enemy infiltration... the ultimate goal of our offensive operations is to reach the banks of the Zherebets River... There will be good news."
By most accounts, it is one of the largest battlefield shifts in months, possibly a year.
Even Russia's own war channels admit the rout
The most telling measure comes from the other side. "A rout on the Lyman front," declared prominent Russian-language Telegram blogger Anatoly Shariy. The channel Rybar, previously affiliated with Russia's Defence Ministry, warned that "the situation at Lyman is alarming." Another channel, Dnevnik Desantnika, conceded: "We suffered an unpleasant tactical defeat" — while adding that encirclement did not occur and that most Russian personnel were withdrawn. Pro-Russian blogger Yury Kotenok, meanwhile, called Ukraine's deliberate information silence "alarming."
Denys Davydov reported on September 28 that advances toward Rai-Oleksandrivka and Piskunivka have been confirmed even by Russian channels, with Russian forces pushed back toward the Zherebets River and a separate Ukrainian counterattack toward Yampil. He cautioned that fighting continues and some claimed positions remain only partially under Ukrainian control.
The fight shifts toward Sloviansk
On September 25, the Institute for the Study of War reported a Kremlin-affiliated Russian military blogger's assessment that the Ukrainian counteroffensive had threatened Russian positions in the Sloviansk direction, with Ukrainian forces consolidating near Rai-Oleksandrivka. It judged that Ukrainian counterattacks will delay any potential Russian offensive against Sloviansk itself.
A day later, ISW noted geolocated footage of Ukrainian forces clearing a Russian position in eastern Mykolaivka, where Russian forces had previously run an infiltration mission. Russian forces, meanwhile, are intensifying guided glide-bomb strikes in the Kramatorsk direction, with a Ukrainian battalion commander reporting heavier strikes on civilian infrastructure and more infiltration attempts.
Military expert Konrad Muzyka told RFE/RL the counteroffensive is significant "not because of what's happening around Lyman, but because I think it thwarted a big Russian plan that was seeking to envelop the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north and from the south." Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace added that "for now, it looks like the northern attempt is blunted."
Why it matters — and its limits
For the moment, the success relieves pressure on the Ukrainian defences holding the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk line. Emil Kastehelmi, co-founder of the Finnish research group Black Bird Group, went further: "The Russian summer campaign of 2026 can be considered a failure."
Honest caveats remain. Military experts told RFE/RL the battlefield success is unlikely to translate into a broader strategic shift: Ukraine remains outnumbered and in many places outgunned, while Russia keeps grinding forward elsewhere. Ukraine's military press office declined to comment, citing ongoing operations, and Russia's Defence Ministry did not respond to queries.
Still, north of Lyman, Ukraine has shown that a quiet, methodical operation can dismantle a salient Moscow spent a year constructing. The battle for the Donbas fortress belt is far from over, but the momentum in this sector has unmistakably shifted.
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