Russia has drawn up a detailed plan to disable Ukraine's entire energy system this winter, according to a Russian Defense Ministry document obtained by Ukrainian authorities and reported by The New York Times. Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal showed the document to two European politicians in late September. The Times said it had obtained a copy of the Russian-language document but that its authenticity could not be verified.
A three-stage campaign to isolate the grid
The plan calls for a large-scale campaign using missiles, guided aerial bombs and drones, including jet-powered models, carried out in three stages. In the first stage, Russian forces would strike substations along Ukraine's western border to prevent the country from importing electricity from Europe. The second stage would target hydroelectric power plants. The third would hit the substations that supply electricity to the three nuclear power plants still under Ukrainian control. Russian troops already occupy the fourth, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
The campaign's ultimate goal, according to the document, is to cut off electricity, heat and water to major Ukrainian cities in order to provoke a humanitarian crisis. Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa are identified as the main targets. The document calls for reducing electricity and heat supplies to those cities by 90 per cent and disabling a substantial portion of their sewage systems. In total, Russia plans to eliminate nearly 15 gigawatts of generating capacity — almost as much as Ukraine had at the end of the summer of 2026.
Nuclear switchyards and city systems in the crosshairs
The Times reported that Moscow intends to force Ukraine's three operating nuclear plants — the backbone of its power infrastructure — to shut down by firing missiles at the electrical switchyards that connect them to the grid. The switchyards sit less than a mile from the reactors. The document also outlines strikes on the water system, including pumping stations and wastewater treatment facilities, with dozens of ballistic missiles and glide bombs.
Officials in Kyiv believe the coming assault, expected to use up to 1,000 missiles, drones and bombs, will surpass the winter campaigns of previous years, which left hundreds of thousands of people without electricity or heating. Kyiv's mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said the capital was in "a critical situation" after a week of near-constant bombardment. "We can no longer pretend that life can go on as it did in peacetime," he wrote on Telegram. "The enemy is tearing Kyiv apart — destroying infrastructure, critical infrastructure, logistics networks, housing and social facilities. The aggressor has once again set out to destroy our energy system."
A grid already under strain
The reported plan comes as Ukraine's defences are stretched thin. The country is increasingly vulnerable because of a shortage of Western-supplied Patriot interceptor missiles since the United States and Israel went to war with Iran in February, and President Volodymyr Zelensky has pleaded with Washington and Ukraine's partners in Europe to increase supplies. Russia, meanwhile, has stockpiled missiles and fielded improved drone technology, including jet-powered Geran-5 drones that Kyiv says fly 150 kilometres per hour faster than earlier models. Ukraine says Russia launched more than 2,800 jet-powered drones against it in August, compared with 1,500 in July and 350 in June.
Ukraine has been racing to repair and expand capacity ahead of winter. In August, Shmyhal told parliament that the country would have 21 gigawatts of generating capacity by the end of the year — enough to meet peak demand, which reached 18 gigawatts last winter — with plans to reach almost 20 gigawatts by the end of October. Experts told the Times, however, that continued Russian strikes could undo those efforts. Russia launched its largest-scale strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since last winter on the night of September 29-30, an early sign of the campaign the document describes.
If the document is genuine, it points to a winter in which the decisive front is not a trench line but the substations, switchyards and pumping stations that keep Ukrainian cities alive. Kyiv's task in the coming months will be to keep the lights on under a plan written, on paper at least, to turn them off.
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