Russia suffered its highest losses of 2026 in September, with 46,230 of its soldiers killed or wounded according to the Ukrainian military — a record monthly toll that came even as Moscow intensified its campaign to freeze Ukrainian cities ahead of winter, and as a Ukrainian counteroffensive around Lyman reclaimed territory Russia had spent months trying to hold.
A record month of losses
The September figure follows Russian casualties of about 40,000 a month since June, and approaches the goal President Volodymyr Zelenskyy set in January of inflicting 50,000 Russian casualties a month. Russia reportedly lost 2,090 troops on September 28 alone — its highest 24-hour casualty rate of the war. Ukraine says it has video evidence of each casualty and that more than 90 percent are caused by first-person view (FPV) drones; Al Jazeera notes it cannot independently verify casualty claims from either side.
Despite the losses, Russia has continued trying to seize the remaining areas of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions it does not control — the sector where its casualties have been heaviest. Open-source trackers remain sceptical of Moscow's claims: the Institute for the Study of War has estimated Russia's net gains this year at just 148 square kilometres, nowhere near the 5,300 square kilometres Russia claims.
Operation Vivaldi turns the tables near Lyman
Ukraine's Third Army Corps has inflicted particularly heavy losses around Lyman, where the third phase of a counteroffensive codenamed Operation Vivaldi has reclaimed 176 square kilometres (68 square miles) of territory in recent weeks. Corps commander Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky said the operation succeeded by feigning an attack from the west, which "forced it [the Russian army] to senselessly burn through its reserves in counterattacks precisely in that direction" — before Ukrainian forces attacked from the north.
Among the tactics used were remotely operated captured Russian armoured personnel carriers filled with explosives, driven into Russian defences. Ukrainian drone operators have meanwhile worked to disrupt Russian ammunition and fuel supplies, starving the front of the logistics it needs to sustain attacks. Russia has denied the counteroffensive's gains, posting videos as purported evidence.
Moscow pounds Kyiv's energy grid
While its ground offensive bleeds, Russia has pounded Ukrainian cities through the past week, striking energy infrastructure alongside residential buildings, kindergartens, schools and offices. Several people were killed on September 28 when a drone destroyed part of the National Academy of Sciences in Kyiv, and the capital suffered power outages on September 30 when drones struck a thermal power plant in the Kyiv region; at least five people were killed across the country that day.
"Since the summer, there has not been a single day when the enemy has not attacked energy infrastructure," Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi wrote. Zelenskyy has warned for weeks that Russia intends to hit the energy sector hard to cause suffering this winter. On September 30 Russia also tested a drone with a cutting warhead designed to destroy high-voltage pylons, according to defence ministry electronics adviser Serhii Beskrestnov, who believes Moscow plans to attack major power lines. Jet-powered drones are compounding the problem: Ukraine downed 81 percent of the 1,933 long-range drones Russia launched in the week ending October 1 — lower than its usual rate against propeller-driven models — and Zelenskyy put the interception rate for jet-powered Shaheds at just 55 percent.
Ukraine strikes back, and both sides overspend
Ukraine has answered with deep strikes of its own, hitting the Perm and Novoshakhtinsk refineries on September 25 and the Ilsky refinery the following day, followed by four oil deposits in the Krasnodar region. Kyiv also struck defence industries, including the NPP Zavod Iskra factory, which produces electronic components for Kh-59 cruise missiles and the Pantsir-S air defence system, the Efremovsky Synthetic Rubber Plant, which makes solid rocket fuel for the Iskander-M, and the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant.
The escalation is straining both war economies. Ukraine says it is seeking an additional $27 billion in meetings with the European Commission and the IMF, while Russia has spent 30 percent more on its war in the first half of the year than in the same period last year, according to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, with leaked documents cited by Reuters indicating a further 27 percent rise to $204 billion in 2027, funded by borrowing and cuts to non-military spending.
September's ledger tells the story of the war's current phase: a Kremlin offensive consuming men at a record pace for marginal gains, a Ukrainian counterattack methodically reclaiming ground near Lyman, and an air war over energy infrastructure that both sides are racing to win before winter sets in.
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