Russian air attacks are now hitting Ukraine twice over: on the battlefield, and in the public finances that keep the army supplied. In Kryvyi Rih, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's hometown, steelworks and mines have halted after ballistic missile strikes, leaving a city of about 600,000 focused on keeping hospitals lit, classrooms open and buses running.
Mayor Oleksandr Vilkul, a former mining executive, said the ArcelorMittal mining and steel complex — the city's largest employer — suspended work last month after its furnaces were damaged, and described the coming year as a struggle for survival. Steel once accounted for roughly a tenth of Ukraine's pre-war output; now mills in Zaporizhzhia and other industrial centres are reported silent, with exports stopped.
When furnaces stop, revenue stops with them
The summer's heavier drone and missile campaign damaged factories, warehouses, ports and rail lines, closing businesses for hours even when they were not hit directly. Budget committee head Roksolana Pidlasa put the daily cost of fighting at about $190 million, up from $140 million two years earlier — excluding weapons supplied directly by allies.
Kyiv spent more than $44 billion on defence in the first nine months of this year, while collecting roughly $42 billion in tax revenue. The government estimates attacks and their disruption have already cost more than 49.5 billion hryvnias, about $1.1 billion, in lost tax receipts, heading toward 70 billion hryvnias by year's end.
The damage also reaches the ports. Grain shipments fell 36.6% year-on-year in September after attacks on Black Sea terminals, and Economy Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko has put about $40 billion in export earnings at risk this year — income that would normally help pay for imports, salaries and defence.
A $56 billion gap, and aid held up by reforms
Ukraine needs about $56 billion to close this year's financing gap, roughly a quarter of annual output, including $27 billion for the military. Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi has frozen non-essential spending, including reconstruction, to protect military outlays, wages and pensions, and postponed about $900 million of capital projects until December.
Kyiv has received close to $200 billion in support since 2022, but officials say about $29.5 billion is at risk this year because parliament has yet to pass tax and anti-corruption measures demanded by lenders. The target now is to pass the bills by October 15. Talks in Brussels last week explored bringing forward payments from a €90-billion European Union loan, though officials warned that advancing money into this year would increase pressure on next year's budget.
The government has proposed a record defence budget of $110 billion for next year, again excluding direct allied aid. Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko estimated the unfunded portion at more than $32 billion, and has argued again for using immobilised Russian central bank assets — about €210 billion held in Europe — to underwrite Ukraine's finances.
Economists expect growth of only 0.5% to 1.5% this year, down from 1.8% in 2025, as businesses delay investment. Industrial park founder Vasyl Khmelnytskyi said he has scrapped three new factory plans near Kyiv, citing risk to the business and its workers.
Ukraine's problem is no longer simply whether partners are willing to help, but whether help arrives before damage to mills, ports and power lines erases the tax revenue that keeps the state functioning. Every furnace left cold in Kryvyi Rih and every berth left idle on the Black Sea is a reminder that this war is also being fought in Kyiv's ledger — and that keeping the lights on in steel towns is now part of holding the line.
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